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Problem #2. High cost Del Mar Tunnel
- $4 Billion+ is the estimated cost to reroute the coastal tracks via a 2 mile tunnel through Del Mar. This would be the most expensive construction project in San Diego history and and serves few riders who skew almost exclusively towards high income earners.
- NO COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS HAS BEEN PROVIDED. This is shocking given the large but unsubstantiated claims (i.e. large ridership, reduced traffic, reduced GHGs etc) made by proponents of the tunnel.
- Funding of the tunnel will require new taxes on a population that already pays the nation's highest sales, gas and state income taxes.
- “Crowding out” effect will reduce the capacity to fund other high priority projects (flood prevention, parks, road repair, bike paths) throughout the county.
- Costs are most likely significantly understated. Mid-Coast Trolley extension was 69% over budget. Initial estimate of $1.29 Billion ended up at $2.1 Billion.
- SANDAG has not adequately factored in the massive risk that the much larger 10 mile San Clemente tunnel ($16 Billion+) might not ever be built due to financial, political, environmental (or just plain practical) reasons.
- There will be high ongoing maintenance costs (~$50 Million annually) typical of all large and complex projects.
- The Del Mar Tunnel would rank as one of the most expensive commuter projects in history; on a per rider basis the tunnel would be 20x more expensive than the recently completed Mid-Coast Trolley Extension. Combined with the $16 Billion estimated cost of the San Clemente, the 2 tunnels would cost $20 Billion which yields an astounding cost of $5 Million per daily rider becoming the most expensive transit project by far in both California and U.S. history
The impacts of such an expensive project
New Taxes Most Likely Required
Other San Diego County Projects "Crowded Out"
Other San Diego County Projects "Crowded Out"
The Coaster train line has very low ridership, low revenue and high losses every year (See Below). As a result, new taxes will be required to fund a portion of of the new tunnel construction. San Diegans already have a very high tax burden and increasing taxes for such a wasteful project isn't fair or smart.
Other San Diego County Projects "Crowded Out"
Other San Diego County Projects "Crowded Out"
Other San Diego County Projects "Crowded Out"
Due to the high expense of the tunnel and associated ongoing maintenance, other projects in the city and county will get delayed or ignored. This includes critical projects surrounding road repair, flood prevention, parks and bike paths.
SANDAG Untrustworthy: 1) Mid-Coast Trolley 69% Over Budget 2) TRANSNET Collections $5 Billion Short
SANDAG Untrustworthy: 1) Mid-Coast Trolley 69% Over Budget 2) TRANSNET Collections $5 Billion Short
SANDAG Untrustworthy: 1) Mid-Coast Trolley 69% Over Budget 2) TRANSNET Collections $5 Billion Short
SANDAG has a long history of misleading the public by significantly underestimating costs and and over estimating projected revenues.
- The Mid-Coast Trolley extension was 69% over budget. Initial estimate of $1.29 Billion ended up at $2.1 Billion.
- Even worse, SANDAG overstated the projected collection of the Transnet Tax revenues by $5 Billion. SANDAG told voters this tax measure would generate $14 Billion over 20 years but now it is expected to generate only $9 Billion and fund far fewer projects. An auditor has been brought in to more closely monitor SANDAG.
- https://voiceofsandiego.org/2016/10/24/sandags-last-tax-hike-is-billions-short-and-measure-a-could-be-too/
SANDAG Ignoring Massive 10 Mile San Clemente Risk
SANDAG Untrustworthy: 1) Mid-Coast Trolley 69% Over Budget 2) TRANSNET Collections $5 Billion Short
SANDAG Untrustworthy: 1) Mid-Coast Trolley 69% Over Budget 2) TRANSNET Collections $5 Billion Short
While Del Mar's $4Bn tunnel is large, it is dwarfed in comparison by the prospective 10 mile ~ $16 Billion tunnel needed to remove the tracks from the beach in San Clemente. There is a real risk that this theoretical tunnel never gets built due to financial, environmental, practical and/or political reasons and that the train line is removed/shut down in San Clemente. Bluff slides severed service to San Diego for almost a year in 2022/2023). Risk assessment requires that San Clemente commit to a solution before San Diego commits to a very expensive Del Mar tunnel.
The Coaster Line Generates Large Operating Losses
The Coaster Line Generates Large Operating Losses
The Coaster Line Generates Large Operating Losses
The Coaster train generates massive and growing losses every year as indicated in the North County Transit District's (NCTD) worsening financial performance. In 2022 the agency lost almost $200 million dollars much of which can be attributed to the Coaster. An expensive tunnel and associated maintenance of $40-50 million a year will significantly add to this loss and continue to crowd out funding for other county infrastructure projects.
San Diego Airport Rebuild - A Contrasting Project
The Coaster Line Generates Large Operating Losses
The Coaster Line Generates Large Operating Losses
Terminal 1 of the San Diego airport is currently going through an entire $2.9 Billion rebuild that is being financed almost completely by the airport itself (i.e. fees from the flyers/travelers). Other projects like the billion dollar San Diego water recycling project (Pure Water) are also financed through user fees. The Del Mar tunnel is the text book example of a wasteful project that residents and voters need to stop.
NEXT PROBLEM: #3 HIGH COST of San Clemente tunnel
The real showstopper here is the potential tunnel in San Clemente which would be 10 miles long (4x that of Del Mar tunnel) and likely cost $16+ Billion. LEARN MORE