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Problem #4. Low ridership
- The I-5 Highway volume of 1,100,000 daily trips is 250x greater than that of the comparative daily Coaster/Amtrak trips/riders of ~4,400 from Oceanside to downtown San Diego.
- Most of the Coaster/Amtrak trains are close to empty (estimated vacancy rate ~90% which is also bad for the environment/GHG emissions: Learn More)
- The I-5 Highway, buses and the blue Line Trolley (which parallels the Coaster much of the way from UTC to downtown San Diego) could easily accommodate the small rider volume of the Coaster/Amtrak.
- SANDAG often uses annualized trip numbers without any context to inflate the importance of the Coaster trip/passenger volume with statements such as “The Coaster carriers 1.6 million trips (or riders or passengers) per year.” 1 million trips is the equivalent of a tiny 4,400 riders per day (4,400 * 365 days= 1.6 million).
Coaster is also the smallest rail line in san diego
- The Coaster is also by far the smallest rail line in San Diego, accounting for just 2% of rail commuters in San Diego.
- Coaster passengers are also predominantly high income earners which raises disturbing implications of equity and fairness given the extraordinary costs (LEARN MORE).
Coaster ridership is not only small but had been declining rapidly even before the pandemic which has created a long term impact on ridership decline.
The Coaster's riders are predominantly high income riders. Spending $20Bn on these relatively few riders is not only a terrible economic decision but also a deeply unjust one
- The $20 Billion Del Mar and San Clemente tunnel projects would be the largest projects in San Diego and Orange County history.
- At approximately $5 Million per New Daily Trip/Ride, the tunnels would also be the most expensive transit projects by far in U.S. history.
- On a per rider basis, the Del Mar tunnel would be almost 20x more expensive than the recently completed Mid Coast Trolley extension.
Pandemic and Remote Work Impact
No population growth will limit Coaster's ridership growth
No population growth will limit Coaster's ridership growth
- The pandemic has had a large and continuing long term impact on all transit travel, especially the Coaster which in 2023 is still down 50% from pre-pandemic levels in 2019.
- Coaster passengers skew heavily towards higher income earners who have a range of commuting options at their disposal, including telecommuting/remote work.
- COVID variants and the threat of new pandemics are major risks to future ridership of Coaster.
No population growth will limit Coaster's ridership growth
No population growth will limit Coaster's ridership growth
No population growth will limit Coaster's ridership growth
- For the first time ever, population growth in San Diego (and in all of California) is projected to be flat over the next 40 years
- Population growth is a key variable considered in all major transit projects
- No population growth means that the geographic service area of the Coaster (north county San Diego) will remain suburban (i.e. not very dense) limiting opportunities for growth in ridership by the Coaster.
Low ridership also means Large financial Losses
- The Coaster train generates massive and growing losses every year as indicated in the North County Transit District's (NCTD) worsening financial performance. In 2022 the agency lost almost $200 million dollars much of which can be attributed to the Coaster. An expensive tunnel and associated maintenance of $40-50 million a year will significantly add to this loss and continue to crowd out funding for other county infrastructure projects.
NEXT PROBLEM: #5 Low Freight Volumes
